Credible Interval
A range that contains the true parameter value with a stated probability (e.g., 95%). The Bayesian counterpart to a frequentist confidence interval.
Last updated: 2026-05-04
Definition
A 95% credible interval means: given the model and the data, the parameter lies in this range with 95% probability. This is what most people THINK a frequentist confidence interval means — but a confidence interval actually has a more convoluted meaning ("if we repeated the experiment many times, 95% of the resulting intervals would contain the true value"). Credible intervals are operationally honest: a board member can read them at face value.
How it applies in India
No India-specific behavior.
Related terms
- Bayesian MMMMarketing Mix Modeling implemented with Bayesian inference (typically MCMC sampling), producing posterior distributions over channel contributions instead of point estimates.
- MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo)A class of algorithms (Metropolis-Hastings, Gibbs, NUTS, HMC) that draw samples from a probability distribution by constructing a Markov chain whose stationary distribution is the target.
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