Saturation Curve
A transformation that models diminishing returns — doubling spend doesn't double conversions; the curve flattens.
Last updated: 2026-05-04
Definition
Saturation curves (Hill, log-S, Michaelis-Menten) model the empirical fact that the 100,001st impression doesn't drive the same lift as the 100th. The shape parameters tell you where you are on the curve: ascending (more spend = more lift) vs flat (you've saturated, more spend wastes budget). The budget optimizer reads these curves to push spend toward channels still on the ascending phase and away from saturated ones.
How it applies in India
India-specific saturation tends to plateau later because the addressable audience is larger; US saturation hits earlier on niche brands.
Related terms
- AdstockA transformation that models marketing's lagged effect — exposure today drives conversions over many days, not just immediately.
- Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM)A statistical method that quantifies how each marketing channel contributes to a sales outcome over time, using historical spend + revenue + exogenous variables.
- Budget OptimizerA solver that proposes a per-channel budget allocation maximizing predicted total ROAS subject to constraints.
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